Asian Investors Optimistic - ING Dashboard Survey

The latest ING - Investor Dashboard survey measures and tracks investor sentiment and behaviour of mass affluent investors each quarter from 12 Asia Pacific markets including China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Japan and Australia. Each market covered by the survey is assigned an investor sentiment score ranging from 0 (the least optimistic) to 200 (the most optimistic).

Here are the conclusions from latest report;

Asian investors optimistic but risk appetite remains low to moderate

  • A double-dip economic scenario appears unlikely
  • Q1 2010 was a consolidation phase where investors were taking profits and assessing domestic and global developments including the crisis in Greece
  • We expect investor sentiment and investment activity to pick up towards the middle of 2010 as global recovery picks up pace and export growth continues to accelerate

 

U.S. economic recovery is on a stable footing but moving at a slower pace than investors expect; concerns about a hard landing in China will affect investors in 2010

  • Unemployment in the U.S. will remain elevated for most of the year
  • Other risk factors such as a U.S. dollar appreciation and possible interest rate hikes will come into play after Q2 10
  • Concerns over a possible asset bubble burst, credit tightening and appreciation of the RMB in China will also add to investors’ concerns in Q2 10
  • Investors may decide to sit on the sidelines for the short-term and keep to a more risk-averse investment strategy.

 

Key risks for 2010 include interest rate hikes across Asia and globally

  • Most central banks in Asia will act on interest rates only after the U.S. does so
  • We do not expect the U.S. to raise interest rates in the short-term particularly as the U.S. unemployment rate remains high; Q4 10 is the earliest period when the U.S. might increase interest rates
  • Whether U.S. interest rate hikes occur in 2010 or 2011 will depend on the rate at which unemployment progresses, how fast housing stocks and sales recover, and signs of a real economic recovery
  • However, markets like India and China may see interest rate hikes earlier than the rest of Asia –within the next two quarters
  • China may see up to two interest rate hikes as early as Q2 10 and again in Q3 10
  • Interest rate hikes in China will have minimal impact on domestic consumption which will remain strong

 

To read the ING report in full, click here http://www.ing.asia/pressroom/InDash/2010/InDash_2010Q1.pdf